March 01 - Take 2 - Closed

 After the large crash this morning, I was unable to enter the market at a reasonable price. Tried to get in with Ambush (50% fib), but missed by 2 ticks. Had 16-tick reversal in for afternoon as well, but price didn't approach. With Daily, hourly and 10 minute charts all below the cloud, all looked like a good short if I can get in with a decent reversal. Two choices - try to get something at the end of the day or wait until the market opens at 1800hrs. 

Price was climbing and came up 8 ticks off the lows, so decided to enter this afternoon. And here we are. Have to be in it to win it? I see in time and sales that a few 100 lots are trading here too. 

Short 1 x ZNM23 @ 111'010, stop 10 ticks (111'060), target 40 ticks (110'130)


Let's see if I was anxious to get in, and would have gotten a better price overnight. 

Update 2200hrs 01 Mar: Price has moved in my favour 20 ticks in short order. I moved my stop to BE according to my rules, and as all timeframes are in line, moved target to 5R (110'080). Trade has no risk except me chickening out.

Update 1615hrs 02 March: Price moved down smartly today. Quickly bottomed out, came back, retested, and then floated up all afternoon. Price would have hit 4R, but I was holding out for more. As I watched price increase, I thought of a few things:
  • Price had huge moves the last few days
  • Price is very over-extended to the downside
  • Tomorrow is Friday, where reversals sometimes happen
  • If I was not up a point by tomorrow, I would have liquidated anyway. 
So, I chickened out and closed the position. Profit of $450, but could have been more. Maybe 5R is too much for ZN to reach quickly? Maybe 5R is better suited for ZB only? I will think about it.
So, at 1613hrs, BOT 1 x ZN@110'180.

Overall trade grade of B. Either should have stuck with 4R or held out for 5R or stop out. Something to work on.




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