Education in the Markets

Weekly overview 12 Feb 12

2012-02-12T17:42:00.000-05:00

Journal Date 12-Feb-12

SandP W- Doji at resistance(2011 highs). No divergence. D-Closed above res this week, but closed back underneath.

Dow W- Kept close above res. D-Kept above Res. No divergences

QQQ W-spinning top above res.D - Kept above gap. BB has made double top (failure), but no divergences otherwise. Surpised if doesn't try to close gap.

RUT W-Harami, but normal. D-Gap from last week has been closed. Interesting-lower volume on entire climb last few months.

TSX W-Bearish candle, but no divergences. D-Hit 200MA and resistance and dropped. Slight gap Friday. Divergences in Stoch and RSI(9).

VIX Large candle that closed out of +5% band. Snap back coming? Its currently under 200MA, so back down would be the probable direction.

Thoughts Market looks like going thru normal pullback. Stick to the plan and trade the plan. I had some good trades this week as I stuck to the plan. Profit on some trades, and loss of only $4. I will take more weeks like this.

Week starting 22 Aug 11

2011-08-21T20:38:00.000-04:00

Interesting last couple of weeks. I changed over to IB as a broker. The commissions are outstanding, but the learning curve is steep for the user interface! I finally got a paper account, and have been trying to purchase options, and am starting to get the hang of it. However, there are some things that I can't just seem to do, like find the price of an option if the price of an underlying changes, get the system to give me what a credit spread will give me, or have a credit spread that is only good for a day! I will get the hang of it...

As an overview for the week, the charts are all looking long term bearish. The DOW, Q, S&P all broke 61.8% fibs on weekly charts, and all still look bearish. So, trades for long term will be looking for bearish tendancies. However, looking at the daily charts, all have a possiblility of rebounding, with bullish divergences on most indexes on RSI and MACD-histogram. As well, the US$ and VIX both not confirming the down movement last Friday. So, trades with bearish probability will be best, but bullish trades must be well placed with good stops and targets.

Trades considered:

IWM - Weekly came below 75% fib, and Daily is inverted hammer. Bullish divergence on Stoch, RSI and MACD-H. Short term trade would be a pull up to MAs. Longer term would be buy puts on breakdown below current resistance. If IWM starts climb up, Bollinger Band double bottom formed, indicating probable visit of MA (73). Bullish entry of 66.95 (from 1 hr charts), Stop 65.94, T1 69.50, T2 71.50. Looking for breakdown below 64.85

LULU - Long term trend up, with short term downswing. If markets go up, will benefit. Either buy call or sell bull put spread. Entry if stock above 49.97, Stop 48.80 (1 hr), T1 52 (gap close), T2 55.50, T3 59. Calls would be Dec 67.5 (delta .17) or Dec 42.5 (delta .65). Bull Put- straddle indicates 8.5, so 37.50/35 for .35. If price breaks down below 41.18, indicated bearish.

MCD - Weekly and daily still in uptrend. Good strategy may be naked puts. Sell sep 70 put for .25. Well below support.

I have been looking at selling spreads vs buying calls/puts. In this market, volitility is high, but if downside is indicated, volitility increases. Perhaps it is better to buy puts for downside, and sell bull put spreads for upside moves? This way, the downside favours increasing volitility. The upside will sell that decreasing volatility. Thoughts? I put in some different options into paper trading, and I will see what happens to the market and how they react.

Good trading!

Trading is about learning.

2011-03-24T19:39:00.000-04:00

Some good trading the last few days. In and out of BIDU yesterday with a tidy profit. Pat myself on the back.

Hold it Skippy. The friggen stock continued to climb! So, back in today off the breakout. And learned a few lessons:
1. When you buy, don't buy at the open. Let the initial buying pressure subside, and then purchase. This morning, you bought way too high, and would have been much further ahead if you had stuck to your buy and waited for the price to come back down. Don't forget to look at the 15min Stoch to see what prices might do at the open.

2. MOST CANDLES DON'T MEAN GET OUT, IT MEANS TIGHTEN YOUR STOPS!

Learn to trade another day. Learn the lesson and don't let it happen again

Interesting Thoughts

2011-03-13T15:28:00.000-04:00

I watched a video by Bill Kraft yesterday, in which he talks about technical analysis. The interesting quote was: "You don't buy a stock because it bounces off a trendline, but because you can put a stop on the other side of the trendline." It was interesting, because it makes you think of TA another way. Not that you want to get in on all of the move, but use TA to limit your risk. In this way, you can stay trading longer. Technical Analysis provides a discipline that I wouldn't have otherwise to get out of a trade.

Interesting thoughts.

Weekly overview - 12 Mar 11

2011-03-12T15:56:00.000-05:00

DOW - Broke down below support of 12047 this week with strong bearish candle Thursday. Friday, closed at resistance. Tues - Wed - Thurs almost looks like evening star pattern, but it is not after an advance. 50 MA is acting as support. Also, pierced lower Bollinger band, and ADX has turned up with the down moves. Overall, break of support and return to resistance on Friday with lower volume leans in bearish direction. Close above 30MA would signal bulls are gaining strength again.

SPX - Broke below support Thursday, then Friday had piercing candle up to resistance. This has broke below trend line. Again, 50MA holding as support. Pierced lower BB, and ADX turned up with downwards movement last few days. Equal volume below resistance still doesn't look bullish.

NASDAQ - Another that is below support and trend line. Larger piercing pattern on Friday, but again on lower volume. MACD now below zero, and well into lower BB. ADX has turned up.

Russell - Below trend line, but support level of 79.63 held (on lower volume). 50 MA was broken, but closed back above. Into lower BB, and ADX turned up with decline.

US Dollar - Interesting tweezer through support. Would signify lower dollar, which should be good for stocks.

VIX - Back down to 20. Confirms higher prices.

TSX - Broke below channel line for last few months, and finished with hammer below last support. 50MA broken and may now act as resistance. Stoch is at level that other downtrends have turned by. Closed AT lower BB on Friday. ADX also turned up.

Weekly view: Overall markets look bearish to trend-less. Possible few day rally then back to lower prices? Or, could be false downside break. So, make sure risks are managed!

Stocks

AAPL - Staying within range, and closed above resistance. Iron condor would work here.

AMZN - Made new LL, and last high was equal to the last. Close below 164 would indicate bearish. All MA are fanning in correct direction for bearish. However, Stoch very oversold and coming back, which may indicate a channel forming. ADX is getting higher on this move. If bounces above resistance, sell bull put for bottom of condor. If goes below 164, go with buying put.

BIDU - Now trading into gap after what looked like island top reversal (higher volume on gaining days). If gap is filled, bullish for stock. Trendline and 50MA acting as support. Went below 30MA and closed above on Thursday (I think this is too late to get in as bullish trade. Indicators turned up, and close is above middle of BB. If closes gap, would be bullish, but next resistance is close.

CAT - Closed below pennant trigger of $100 on Thurs and Friday (Friday was piercing pattern). 50MA acting as support. Many of indicators, BB and ADX are liking downwards movement. Close above 30MA would signal move back up to at least $105

CME - This looks like a nice channel trade. Close Friday made high wave doji (rickshaw man, I believe) right down near support. Channel looks to be forming between $290 and $320. Stoch is at oversold, and would seem to signal an opportunity. Buy Bull Put if goes above doji. Wait if goes below, as support is close.

CSX - Really in holding pattern and tight range. 30MA good support. BB tighening and ADX at low level. Divergence on MACD. Wait for a breakout or breakdown.

GOOG - Broke down below support Friday with spinning top with higher volume. Next hard support at 554. All indicators point bearish intermediate term

NFLX - Tried to fill gap, but didn't quite make it. Now between narrow levels. 100MA is holding as support. Indicators look like resetting for further climb. Didn't make it to lower BB, and has turned higher. ADX does not support trend. Lots of volatility on this one! If breaks 215, go with bull put, tgt of 240. If not, lots of support levels on downside make reward less.

SNDK - Could shape up into channel, but indicators also liking downtrend. Bounced off intermediate trend line and 200MA with belt hold on Friday. Other MA starting to fan for decline. Indicators very oversold and could come back up. Price is walking lower BB, and Money Flow index is at lowest level in 6 months. ADX still up. If keeps above last support, would help shore up channel trade at least.

Daily overview 24 Feb 11

2011-02-24T21:10:00.000-05:00

Interesting Markets! Dow fell below support but closed just above. SPX closed just below support but right on a trendline, with a long-legged doji. And the QQQQs closed just on support like the Dow. Volatility made a Dark Cloud cover candle from the last two days increases. Is the market going up again? I have no idea! But, I do think it will move tomorrow. The trend is still in place, so I will look at stocks that have a similar look to the market. And if the market goes south tomorrow, that's OK, as I will then start looking at bearish set-ups over the weekend! Maybe Ross will give me a good tip or two in return for dinner and wine!

Note: the only thing wrong with many of the stocks to pick are that they are on lower volume.
Stocks to trade:
COST - High wave spinning top. Not on support, but in line with market. Enter over 73.75. Stop 72. Tgt 76
CTSH - Almost tweezers. Enter over 75.97. Stop 72.75. Tgt 78
eBay - Nice flag. Enter 33.57. Stop 32. Tgt1 35. Tgt2 38.
FAST - High wave doji right on support. Enter 62.19. Stop 59.40. Tgt 66
JOYG - Spinning top. Enter 96.39. Stop 90. Tgt 101 (Not good RR)
LULU - Good bounce off support. Enter 77.75. Stop 72.25. Tgt1 85. Tgt2 95 ***
NFLX - Enter 219. Stop 205. Tgt 248 ****

Daily overview 22 Feb 11

2011-02-22T20:09:00.000-05:00

Markets:
Dow, interestingly enough, retraced just below and then closed just on resistance (12200). Funny that. Next resistance level 12043, 1/2 way between 20 and 50 EMA.
SPX went right down to 1310 resistance as well
QQQQ - Is more troubling, as it went only half way down to resistance, but fell below the latest trendline.

TSX- And look at that. Right down to resistance and 10EMA. Next level is close as well.
VIX - Can we say spike? Highest level since Dec (20.8), and outside of the channel the VIX was in.
Overall: Still in overall uptrend until proven otherwise. Look for stocks in flag to get cheaper. With higher volatility, look at Bull puts?

Lesson of the day: Type the right number into orders.
Looked at some conditional orders that I had in and was surprised that I was filled in CTSH. I thought that the company made a terrible mistake, as the stock had not made my breakout price. When I looked, I had entered the stop price. No wonder I was filled with the calls! Now, must look at repair strategies. As well, has broken below resistance.

ADSK - Bollinger top formed. Anticipate some lower prices.
ALTR - Pullback
BMC - Pullback
CLF - Very bearish!
DECK - High wave on support. If market turns up, could be poised for better things
JNPR - Pullback
JOYG - Pullback
KLAC - Pullback
LULU - Bull flag on mainly lower volume. Still not close to support.
NFLX - Pulled back to upper trendline. Will act as support?\
SLW - Dark cloud cover.
On the whole, most haven't broken support. Just healthy pullback with some room to run.
Canadian:
CM - Nice Flag
CNR - Flag
NA - Flag
Canadian Banks looking good for buys at better prices...

Pensez-moi demain pour mon examen francais! Et puis, peut-etre je commencerai de faire le commerce!

Update 21 Feb 11

2011-02-21T19:13:00.000-05:00

With the markets closed today and a French exam approaching this week, I took the entire weekend to study French. So today, back at the charts to see what is up for the week.

Indexes: All US indexes are still looking bullish. Trade with the trend. As well, TSX still looking bullish, but there is a possibility of a Bollinger double top if price does not soon tag the upper band. However, this is the only negative indication. Keep watch.

So: Continue to look for bullish trades to continue with the overall market trend.

Individual Stocks:

ADSK - Bollinger double top.

C - Bollinger squeeze?

CTSH - Breakout on higher volume from all-time high. If continues on Tuesday, buy over 77.80. Stop 75.50. Tgt 81.00 (buy Apr 70 Calls, delta .86)

DECK - Looks like breakout.

DTV - Break above 44.75 would confirm breakout. Stop 42.75. Tgt 48. However, earnings on 23rd, so wait.

EBAY - Close above 35 would be bullish.

HESS - Breakout above 86

LULU - Small pullback. Close above 84 would get back in. Tgt 92. Stop 80

MCP - No idea what I did. Had vertical +50/-55 Call to create a Bull Call spread. Why? I don't know, but the stock is looking more and more bearish. If I had constructed a Bear Call spread properly (-50/+55), it may have worked.

NFLX - Bull flag. Buy above 240.50. Stop 229. Tgt 270.

ROST - Buy above 72.35. Stop 69.50. Tgt 77.50.

TLM@TSX - Good continuation. But, next resistance at 25. Hold until breaks.

Daily overview 16 Feb 11

2011-02-16T20:18:00.002-05:00

Markets all kept above resistance today and gained on higher volume. Short and intermediate trend is up.
The only non-confirming is that the VIX closed up as well.

ADSK - Buy above 44.88. Stop 43.16. Tgt - 50. Good close above resistance on higher volume. Negative would be large upper wick. Buy Apr 43 Calls for approx 3.55 (Delta >.6). EARNINGS 23 Feb

DECK - Looks like starting to channel. Could buy Bear Call Spread (Mar 90/95) for approx 1.10. Resistance at 86.50. Better may be just to buy ITM Put. However, this is going against market.

DTV - Buy above 44.67. Stop 43.80. Tgt 48. Currently channeling. If breaks above resistance (all-time high), then buy to equal size of channel.

EBAY - Buy above 35.12. Stop 33.35. Tgt 38. Not a great R/R

F - Has turned bearish. Currently in bear flag. If market goes down, short crossing 15.10. Tgt 13. Stop 15.50.

LULU - Buy above 83.88. Stop 80.50. Tgt 94. Bull Flag with Doji

ORCL - Buy above 33.89. Stop 32.42. Tgt 36.26 and 39

PAYX - Buy above 33.80. Stop 32.90. Tgt 35, 37. However, indicators looking tired. MACD divergence.

SLW looks as if it is in a bear flag...

MFC@TSX - Buy above 19.49. Stop 19. Tgt 20.80. Good move up on greater volume. 100MA X up 200 MA. 20 EMA acting as support. If hits 19.49, will touch top of bollinger band and negate Bollinger top

SLF@TSX - Buy above 34.50. Stop 32.70. Tgt 37.50. Staying above resistance on higher volume. Very stretched bollingers. ADX does not confirm. EARNINGS tonight

SU@TSX - Buy above 43.85. Stop 42.57. Tgt 46.50. Good break on volume

Daily overview 15 Feb 11

2011-02-15T20:42:00.000-05:00

DJIA, SPX, QQQQ and IWM- Market looks as if resting. SPX, Qs and Russell look a little like evening star pattern with higher volume (marginally). TSX possible shooting star at resistance. Currently in tight range (13777-13946).
However, trend still in place until proven otherwise.
Lots of double tops forming for stocks. But, want to trade with the market. Don't fight the trend!!

FW: Daily overview 27 Jul 10

2010-07-27T20:01:00.002-04:00

Posted At: July 27, 2010 8:01 PM
Posted To: Daily Overview
Conversation: Daily overview 27 Jul 10
Subject: Daily overview 27 Jul 10

S&P – Although close down for the day, at same level as Friday. MACD ticked up. Weekly at value.

Russell – At top of channel

DJI – Hammer formed at top of advance.

TSX – Larger down day than US markets. MACD-H ticked down. Came up upon trendline and bounced back down. Signals a bearish short term

S&P Midcap – down on larger volume. But, MACD-H still ticked up

Ny NH/NL – Confirms slight downtick of market

TSX NH/NL – Bearish divergence in short term.

VIX – Broke down below support, but closed above Friday. Not supportive of market to hold at support so well.

TLT – near bottom of Keltner channel with inverted hammer, almost oversold. However MACD-H still ticked down.

Overall – Really unsure. Looks like market is slightly overbought and will pull back slightly. VIX and TLT showing some strength.

FW: Overview for 26 Jul 10

2010-07-26T21:03:00.004-04:00

Posted At: July 26, 2010 9:00 PM
Posted To: Daily Overview
Conversation: Overview for 26 Jul 10
Subject: Overview for 26 Jul 10

S&P – Continuing to make new high. RSI(14) broke above 60. Bullish

Russell – Continuing to make new highs. MACD cross zero. RSI(14) above zero. Bullish

DJI – Continuing to make new highs. MACD well above zero. RSI(14) above 60. Bullish

TSX – High is at resistance of latest high, making dragonfly doji. Force declining and RSI(14) still not above 60. Still neutral

S&P Midcap – Good strong advance. MACD above zero. RSI(14) now above 60. Bullish

NYSE NH/NL – Confirms advance of market

TSX NH/NL – confirms advance of market

VIX – Challenging resistance. MACD-H ticking down. Confirms advance of market

TLT – Southern doji. MACD and MACD-H confirm power of bulls. Confirms advance of market.

Overall – Bullish Market

Watch for Pullback:

CCO

And many more.

Market has begun bullish swing. Do I buy above value, or wait for pullback? My mind tells me to wait, but my gut says that there may not be a pullback. Let’s see how this turns out.

FW: Weekly Overview

2010-07-25T20:12:00.003-04:00

Conversation: Weekly Overview
Subject: Weekly Overview

Weekly

SPY – Closed above downtrend line. RSI holding above resistance. MACD line below zero and heading up. MACD-H rising. Bullish. Resistance should be around 113

Russell – Also closed marginally above downtrend line. RSI above 50. MACD staying above zero and MACD-H ticking up. Bullish

DJI - Closed above downtrend line. RSI holding above resistance. MACD line below zero and heading up. MACD-H rising. Bullish.

TSX – Still within trading range. RSI above 50 and broken trendline. RSI ticking up. Neutral, but may be bullish due to US markets.

S&P Midcap – closed at trendline, but strong bullish engulfing candle. RSI above 50. Bullish

NYSE NH/NL – continues to climb since bottom in May. Broke above 50 day MA. Bullish

TSX NH/NL – Neutral with TSX. Bullish divergence in MACD-H if really look. Neutral.

NYSE Bullish Percent Index – Still below 50. Bearish

VIX – Holding at support, but bearish engulfing. RSI bearish divergence. MACD-H went below zero for first time since April. Bullish for stocks.

TLT – Holding at resistance with shooting star. MACD-H continues to tick down. Bullish for stocks.

Gold – Pullback into value. MACD-H is negative. Long-term MACD bearish divergence. Seasonal cycle says will be down till Sep. So, look for pullback for upcoming month.

Silver – Bears showing more power. Support at $17. Market exhaling. Neutral

Oil – Prices slowly increasing. RSI and MACD-H increasing. Still below value. Bullish

Market sector or industry group is showing relative strength (or weakness: )

US: Materials, Industrials, Consumer Staples

Can: Materials, Small-caps

Overall: US markets bullish in intermediate term. Breakout from flag could signal beginning of run. Canadian market not showing as good signs of improvement. Cdn market neutral in the intermediate, but should be buoyed by US market.

SC.TO - Daily Candlesticks

2010-04-20T10:51:00.002-04:00

SC.TO - Daily Candlesticks: "

via StockCharts.com
"I thought that this looked good. The drop down was overly aggressive, and outside the keltner channel. The Impulse System shows Blue/Blue, and the MACD has been slowly coming up as the price has been continuing to drop. Looking at the gap that opened, I placed a buy at 37.93, with a target of the 13 bar EMA of 39.47. Stop is half way down the drop at 36.75

6-things-youre-doing-to-delay-your-retirement: Personal Finance News from Yahoo! Finance

2010-04-19T06:24:00.001-04:00

6-things-youre-doing-to-delay-your-retirement: Personal Finance News from Yahoo! Finance: "- Here is some interesting thoughts on where you spend your money

Hello World

2010-04-19T05:33:00.000-04:00

I have started this blog to help document my progression as a trader. I will post my thoughts, ups and downs that I have in navigating the meandering financial road. One thing to keep in mind is the rules of the game: Rule #1 - Don't lose money. Rule#2 - see rule #1 (thanks to Buffet and others)

If anyone reads this blog, please note that any investment ideas must be used within your own investing constructs. You really don't trade the market, but your perception of the market. Everyone is welcome to my ideas, but please keep in mind the source (the title of Beginner may give you some clues...)

Later...