Education in the Markets

 After mistakes the last few days, today's goal was to make only valid trades. Plan was to wait for the 0830 numbers, check all the charts, go in the direction of the hourly and trade the 2/5 if possible. After the numbers, waited for some dust to settle and then looked at the charts. All timeframes were bullish, but ZN looked best. Tried 8-tick reversals for 15 minutes, but price just wouldn't come back. So changed to a 4-tick reversal. At 0903hrs, Bot 1 x ZN @ 116'000. As price goes up, it will also come down. So at 1025hrs, stopped out at 115'270 I then bided my time and waited for another setup. Looked at all the futures, but ZF looked to have the best setup. Price looked like it was bouncing off the cloud on the 10M, and Std line on the hourly. I put in a 12-tick reversal, but price wasn't coming close (it was bouncing off some support). Switched to an 8-tick reversal, and was filled at 1157 at 110'047. Here is how the other time frames looked. Stop is set ...

 After CPI numbers, prices jumped for the day. Tried to get in with a normal pullback, but finally entered with 4-tick reversal, as prices were moving so fast. At 0838hrs, Bot 1 x ZN @ 116'060. Quickly stopped out as prices retraced. Sad 1 x ZN @ 116'010 Next plan was for the price to tag the Turning line, so put in a limit order and waited. At 0943hrs, Bot 1 x ZN @ 115'240 Then I noticed that I had not completed a good look at all timeframes, and the hourly is back below the cloud. I thought that with such a big move, it has to be bullish, right? Decided to stick with the trade. At 1029hrs, sld 1 x ZN @ 115'190.  I am disappointed that I didn't properly confirm that the setup was good. Lesson learned, but I wish I had not done it.

 So, after a long Easter weekend, I was back at trading for the day. I felt good, and looked at the charts. With the daily and 10M above the cloud, decided to go long. The hourly was below the cloud, but price was above the standard line, so it may still climb.  I put in an 8-tick reversal and then noticed the double top on the 10M chart. It would be best if I could be on the same side as the hourly, so I cancelled the order and waited.  Prices declined sharply and had one 10M close below the cloud, with the price below the Std line on the hourly chart. As it was just breaking the cloud, I did a 4-tick reversal and at 0744hrs Sad 1 x ZN @ 115'185. And then, there was a strong close above the 10M chart. So, I exited for only a $110 loss (not full R). At 0831 bot 1 x ZN @ 115'220. Thought I was pretty smart getting out early and saving some cash! Last update: Price did come up, but didn't hit my stop and then melted. Missed the entire move. Gotta stick with the plan and bel...

 Wednesday 05 April - Interesting day! Sun in shining, looks beautiful and they are calling for freezing rain later? What? So, I waited until after the 0830 numbers, looked at all of the charts and decided to go long. Put in an 8-tick reversal. Plan was that if I was stopped out with the 8-tick, I would do a Fib retrace. Was filled at 0839hrs for 1 x ZN at 116'135 from the 8-tick reversal. Stop of 10 ticks and no target. I would like to let this one run if it can, so I will hold through the 1000hrs numbers and beyond. After 1000hrs numbers, prices surged. Moved my stop to BE+1 and I was now in a riskless trade.  After lunch, I was looking at the other products, and decided that the two-year was retracing to the hourly Turning Line, so decided to get into a long position there. At 1327hrs, Bot 1 x ZT @ 103'260. Stop 20 ticks and open target.  So now, we see why we do the little thing we do.  All bids to buy or sell get a stop (and target if applicable) with GTC order....

 Well, another quick day of trading's but with a different result from yesterday. Woke up early, and had a look at the markets. They had bottomed at 115'080, which was a Fib level from yesterday's move. I put in a buy at that level, but price continued higher. When it hit '120, I put in a 4-tick reversal from that location. At0603hrs, Bot 1 x ZN at 115'100. Stop of 10 ticks, tgt of 50 ticks. After I bought, price hovered and then dropped. Stopped out at 0702hrs at 115'050. Good trade, but could have waited longer to enter. Night is different due to lower volume, so move movement. If I had waited for '080, would have still been stopped out. Better trade would have been to wait for a touch of the Hourly Std line at '035. On to the next trade. Opening Range breakout trade looked OK, so at 0825hrs, bot 1 x ZN at 115'080. T1 at '130, T2 at '180, stop '030. As the range isn't great, looking for T2. At 0907hrs, Sld 1 x ZN @ 115'030. Stop...

 Got back from the south yesterday late, so getting going today was a little slow. But, had a look at the charts after 0800hrs, and the price was bullish in all timeframes and at a 12-tick reversal for ZN, so put in a bid at 114'250 and was filled at 0822hrs. Stop of 10 ticks (below the cloud) and target of 40 ticks. There are numbers at 0945 and 1000hrs, but if I wait too long, I will never get in. As the time dragged on, I really made a point of not looking at the trade. It will either work or not. But, I saw that price came down and touched the cloud, which it will do frequently when there is a cloud break. Could have waited for that for a better entry's but that's OK. Well, that was fast. Ten o'clock numbers came out and price shot up hitting my target. At 1002hrs, sld 1 x ZN @ 115'130.  Sometimes you get lucky, sometimes good. But as I noted before, you have to be in it to win. There was a valid setup, and because I was in a rush, I didn't hesitate. Happy w...

  Here is what can happen when you chicken out and take a little winner. In the end, you really lose...

 Well, opened the charts this morning and had a little surprise. Usually, all of the charts are pretty similar. But this morning, it seems like the longer-term products (ZB and ZN) were looking bullish, while the ZF and ZT were still bearish. Here is a screen shot at about 0900hrs (after the 0830 numbers) to show you an example: So anyway, after the numbers, as prices went parabolic, looked at Fibs to get me an entry point. As the Turning line was on the 50% mark, put a buy order for that. Ten tick stop.  Filled 0844: Bot 1 x ZN @ 114'190. Stop 10 ticks. Tgt 20 ticks.  I want to use a PSAR to move my stop level, as I am looking at this as a day trade (chances that it goes up to a point before end of day are low). Thought about using a 3M PSAR, but the 15M looks better and will give some wiggle room.  After the past month, the hardest part will be not to rush into taking profits before my target. But I know that this is where using the PSAR comes in.  Update 0948...

 Well, what an interesting day. Price seems to be all over the place, so the plan today was to make short trades to close targets and trail my stops with PSAR. Worked OK and am out with a small profit for the day, but almost enough to buy a cup of coffee.  Looked at charts this morning and noted that there were GDP and Jobless Claims coming out at 0830hrs. So, sat on hands until that time. After the numbers, prices were plunging, so looked at 12-tick reversal, but switched quickly to 4-tick on ZT. At 0835hrs, Sld 1 x ZT@103'037. Using 10 tick stop and normal 40 tick target.  Used a 3M PSAR to trail my stop and lock in some gains. At 0911hrs, Bot 1 x ZT @ 103'028. Good trade; continued to trail down stop. I followed my plan. At this point, perhaps heady from the huge profit I made ($50), I decided to look at the other notes. The ZN was setting up for a Fib retracement, so decided to get in. Price had already retraced into the 50-61% zone, so put in Sell stop 1 tick under t...

First thing this morning, I made a plan to wait for the 1000hrs numbers to get assimilated, so I have been watching all morning as price declined but didn't enter. I felt frustrated on missing such a large move down, but kept thinking about trading only according to the plan, do didn't make any impulse trades. In the end, nothing really happened with Investor Confidence. But at that time, price was between the turning and standard line on the 10M chart, so I waited for a better setup, as price will do anything when between the lines. Prices on the 10M chart kept rising to the cloud, spent some time in it, then closed under. I waited for the 10M bar to close, and put in an 8-tick reversal (as 12 would have been way above the cloud), but price moved sharply down. As it continued to make new lows, I moved the sell level down, but after 4 moves, switched to a 4-tick reversal. Filled at 1200hrs: Sld 1 x ZT @ 109’095. Running with 10 tick stop (right or right out) and targeting just ...

 So, markets were continuing to drop last night, so I thought I would use the 2-year notes to continue to take advantage of the drop. I looked at the price at about 2000hrs last night, and entered a 12-tick reversal. When I went to bed, it hadn't been hit, and the price had dropped, so I lowered the sell price and went to bed. Overnight, at 0001hrs, Sld 1 x ZT@103'060. Twenty tick stop, 50 tick target. And the price continued up, so was quickly stopped out. At 0034hrs, Bot 1 x ZT@ 103'085 for a loss of 1R.  These swings are getting tiresome. But stick to the plan for now, and see if the plan needs to change.  Since there are big numbers coming out this morning at 1000hrs, I didn't get into the current waterfall: I will see what happens just after 1000hrs.

 So, as I go through this process of becoming a better trader, I am finding that the hardest part is to calm my mind and be calm when I am trading. When I am not calm, I get anxious, and it ends up with me not taking trades (because I am scared of taking a loss), or taking trades haphazardly that do not meet my entry conditions.  As I work through this, I find that I have missed something: goals. Of course, my goal is to be a profitable trader; one who takes every setup that comes along that fits my parameters, is comfortable with losing, but has a upward-sloping profit curve. As I was sitting listening to something with Sandy, the person was talking about looking at  "Your Miracle Scale"; where you look at what it would take to think you have accomplished a miracle! Ten is completing everything you want, and 1 is doing the opposite of what you want. Every time you mess up, you are not starting at 1, but you are just human and are still somewhere in the middle. If you mak...

 What do you do when you really want to trade, but it doesn't make sense? Do you take the trade anyhow? I guess the answer is that you shouldn't, but today I found myself really wanting to trade, and I disregarded my Trading Plan. What was the outcome? Can you guess? So, lots of numbers today. I was travelling last week, and didn't get in on the nice run up Thursday to Friday. Didn't trade yesterday, as there were some other things going on. So this morning, I was raring to go! After the 0830 numbers, prices climbed and closed above the 10M cloud. Sweet! I will get in at a great price and ride the trade to the sky! Over the rainbow! Put in a 12-tick reversal of the high, and at 0842, Bot 1 x ZF @ 109'192. Stop at 10 ticks. Well, with other numbers coming at 0900hrs that I didn't think about (was concentrating on the 1000hrs numbers), price just continued to decline. Hit my stop and I was out of the trade. At 0856hrs, Sld 1 x ZF@109'167 for a .5R loss. I need...

 So, after a nice weekend with the Shamrock races, I am back at it today. As has been happening the last days, the market is volatile, and moves lots during the night, so ATR is maxed early in the morning.  Started to try to get into ZF about 0810hrs, but couldn't get a 12-tick fill. So, went for a 4-tick reversal, even though I haven't had much luck with them. At 0830, Sld 1 x ZF @109'025. Twenty tick stop ($156). Target was 40 ticks, but will move if necessary. So of course, Canada tries to screw me up. Although the only US announcement upcoming was at 1000 (and Ms Yellen as well), Canada announced its CPI numbers and they were good. So, US bond prices rose. Came within 1 tick of my stop, then turned back down. But all was very slow.  Numbers were upcoming at 1000hrs, and price was slowly making a new low, so decided to take the profit I had and wait out the numbers. At 0949hrs, Bot 1x ZF @109'000. Not much of a profit, but not a loss. Did I get out too fast? Maybe. B...