But I want to trade!!! - Closed

 What do you do when you really want to trade, but it doesn't make sense? Do you take the trade anyhow? I guess the answer is that you shouldn't, but today I found myself really wanting to trade, and I disregarded my Trading Plan. What was the outcome? Can you guess?

So, lots of numbers today. I was travelling last week, and didn't get in on the nice run up Thursday to Friday. Didn't trade yesterday, as there were some other things going on. So this morning, I was raring to go! After the 0830 numbers, prices climbed and closed above the 10M cloud. Sweet! I will get in at a great price and ride the trade to the sky! Over the rainbow! Put in a 12-tick reversal of the high, and at 0842, Bot 1 x ZF @ 109'192. Stop at 10 ticks.


Well, with other numbers coming at 0900hrs that I didn't think about (was concentrating on the 1000hrs numbers), price just continued to decline. Hit my stop and I was out of the trade. At 0856hrs, Sld 1 x ZF@109'167 for a .5R loss.


I need to keep thinking to myself: Do I want to trade, or do I want to make money? 

So, what to do? Maybe actually follow the Trading Plan I have spent so much time making? That sounds like a good idea!

So, waited for the 1000hrs number to come out, re-evaluated where price was, and put in an order that followed my plan. 

Since price was below the cloud on the H and 10M now, put in a 12-tick sell order on the five-year note. Kept moving the sell level down as new lows were made. Plan was that if a new LOD was made, I would switch to a 4-tick reversal. But, was rewarded with patience: at 1037hrs, Sld 1 x ZF @ 109'132.


 Price stayed at '130 for a long time before coming up 1 tick to hit my sell, so I am hoping that it is a good level. Stop is at 20 ticks, Tgt at 40 ticks. If price moves to '082 (20 ticks), I will move stop to BE+1. Price has moved 0'177 so far today, and ATR is 1'027, so I am still looking for some movement. 

Update at 1100hrs - I am still in the trade. It has been very tempting to get out so that I am at BE for the day (after the .5R loss earlier), but I cannot trade like that. Each trade is different, and if I cut out to be BE on the day, 100 to 1 that will be the one that runs a full point. I need to take what the market gives me. This takes some working on. 

Did some breathing exercises as well, to keep my head clear and let me consciously think about what I am doing: 


Update 1400hrs: Well, the trade worked OK, then the 1300 Money Supply numbers hit. As it turned out, I was away from the computer, so the trade ran without me. When I saw prices, they had reversed back up to '125. I could have moved my stop to BE, but at that point, I was fairly sure it would have led to being stopped out. My rules say to move stop to BE when I am up 20 ticks, but decided to risk the amount. Prices on 10M may go to bottom of cloud and bounce. That level corresponds to just below Std line on Hourly chart. Will see if I was right or wrong.


Update 1630hrs: So, the day was interesting. Up. Down. Up. Down. But, the stop held and prices, again, went down 20 ticks. So, my stop has been moved to BE-1. I set the target at 45 ticks ('020), as it looks like that is where the daily will come in contact with the cloud. I could let it run, but would like to trade to target a few times, before letting the profits just run. Follow the plan. At this point, I am risking nothing on the trade.


Update 29 Mar: So, I was stopped out overnight. Price went up, and continued up. As I had moved my stop just past BE, I came out with a small profit. Good trade that followed the plan. Happy with the trade, but unhappy that I came out with such a small profit.




Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

The pain has to stop - Closed

Image
 After mistakes the last few days, today's goal was to make only valid trades. Plan was to wait for the 0830 numbers, check all the charts, go in the direction of the hourly and trade the 2/5 if possible. After the numbers, waited for some dust to settle and then looked at the charts. All timeframes were bullish, but ZN looked best. Tried 8-tick reversals for 15 minutes, but price just wouldn't come back. So changed to a 4-tick reversal. At 0903hrs, Bot 1 x ZN @ 116'000. As price goes up, it will also come down. So at 1025hrs, stopped out at 115'270 I then bided my time and waited for another setup. Looked at all the futures, but ZF looked to have the best setup. Price looked like it was bouncing off the cloud on the 10M, and Std line on the hourly. I put in a 12-tick reversal, but price wasn't coming close (it was bouncing off some support). Switched to an 8-tick reversal, and was filled at 1157 at 110'047. Here is how the other time frames looked. Stop is set ...
Read more

Waiting for a setup - Closed

Image
First thing this morning, I made a plan to wait for the 1000hrs numbers to get assimilated, so I have been watching all morning as price declined but didn't enter. I felt frustrated on missing such a large move down, but kept thinking about trading only according to the plan, do didn't make any impulse trades. In the end, nothing really happened with Investor Confidence. But at that time, price was between the turning and standard line on the 10M chart, so I waited for a better setup, as price will do anything when between the lines. Prices on the 10M chart kept rising to the cloud, spent some time in it, then closed under. I waited for the 10M bar to close, and put in an 8-tick reversal (as 12 would have been way above the cloud), but price moved sharply down. As it continued to make new lows, I moved the sell level down, but after 4 moves, switched to a 4-tick reversal. Filled at 1200hrs: Sld 1 x ZT @ 109’095. Running with 10 tick stop (right or right out) and targeting just ...
Read more

Fast Overnight trade - Closed

Image
 So, markets were continuing to drop last night, so I thought I would use the 2-year notes to continue to take advantage of the drop. I looked at the price at about 2000hrs last night, and entered a 12-tick reversal. When I went to bed, it hadn't been hit, and the price had dropped, so I lowered the sell price and went to bed. Overnight, at 0001hrs, Sld 1 x ZT@103'060. Twenty tick stop, 50 tick target. And the price continued up, so was quickly stopped out. At 0034hrs, Bot 1 x ZT@ 103'085 for a loss of 1R.  These swings are getting tiresome. But stick to the plan for now, and see if the plan needs to change.  Since there are big numbers coming out this morning at 1000hrs, I didn't get into the current waterfall: I will see what happens just after 1000hrs.
Read more